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Friday, August 01, 2008

 

Going negative

By VictorM:

Contrary to earlier proclamations, John McCain has gone negative, a la Karl Rove, in a recent ad tying Barack Obama to Britney Spears and Paris Hilton. Whether that attack will have an impact remains to be seen, but let's get real! According to Pollster.com, and going state by state, here are the reasons for those attacks:

• Obama holds a 336 to 202 electoral vote lead over McCain
• if we count only states where each candidate holds a 10+ point lead over the other, 210 electoral votes are safe for Obama, but just 72 for McCain
• if we consider what Pollster.com considers tossup states, we have Obama 284, McCain 147, Tossup 107. It takes 270 electoral votes to win. Today, Obama is 14 EVs above that threshold, while McCain is 123 below it.

No matter how we look at it, Barack Obama holds a sizable lead over John McCain and there isn't a single legitimate issue where McCain can makeup ground, hence the sleaze.

Of course, one could argue that the ad is not negative because after all, Britney Spears and Paris Hilton remind McCain of his own wife. :-p

Permalink| Posted @ 1:44 PM |

Comments:

...A very useful and detailed analysis! Thank you! Where did you get those numbers from? They are certainly encouraging.
I notice the media has been avoiding comparing the two candidates by those terms, i.e., electoral votes. All I hear is how they are just "within a few percentage points" of each other in the polls, and I have to wonder, what polls are those? Certainly seems more like a race that way, and we know they need to sell papers...

# posted by  RReppy : 9:26 PM

 

All those numbers from http://pollster.com/

# posted by  VictorM : 10:30 PM

 

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